Editing Preparing for a Big Score

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{{Storylet
 
{{Storylet
 +
|Icon = Furtivehand.png
 
|ID = 12426
 
|ID = 12426
−
|Icon = Furtivehand.png
+
|location = The Flit
 
|Description = Now you've settled into the Flit, it's time for a big score. You will need to prepare for such a daring robbery.  
 
|Description = Now you've settled into the Flit, it's time for a big score. You will need to prepare for such a daring robbery.  
 
|Game Instructions = Increase your [[Casing...]] to 5 to begin unlocking options.<br> As your [[Casing...]] quality rises, you may attempt more difficult and lucrative jobs.
 
|Game Instructions = Increase your [[Casing...]] to 5 to begin unlocking options.<br> As your [[Casing...]] quality rises, you may attempt more difficult and lucrative jobs.
 
|Unlocked with = {{Unlock|A Name Whispered in Darkness|4}}
 
|Unlocked with = {{Unlock|A Name Whispered in Darkness|4}}
 
|Locked with = {{Lock|Opening a Bundle of Oddities}}
 
|Locked with = {{Lock|Opening a Bundle of Oddities}}
−
|location = The Flit
 
−
|Option1 = Look for the targets
 
−
|Option2 = Examine the target
 
−
|Option3 = The decoy
 
−
|Option4 = Formulate a plan
 
−
|Option5 = Scapegoats and alibis
 
−
|Option6 = Criminal assistance
 
−
|Option7 = Eavesdrop on those in the know
 
−
|Option8 = Well-planned villainy
 
−
|Option9 = Set your gang of hoodlums to business
 
−
|Option10 = The Big Score: choose your target
 
−
|Option11 = Sell information 0{{!}}Sell information
 
−
|Option12 = Dealing with Suspicion
 
−
|Option13 = Plan a Heist (Option){{!}}Plan a Heist
 
−
|Option14 = Get ready for your Heist!
 
 
}}
 
}}
 +
{| class="article-table article-table-selected" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" style="width: 100%;"
 +
|+<br />Summary of possible results
 +
|-
 +
! style="width:25%;" |Option
 +
! Actions
 +
! Difficulty
 +
! Success
 +
! Failure
 +
|-
 +
|[[Eavesdrop on those in the know]]
 +
|1
 +
|50
 +
|{{IL|Casing...|+2}}
 +
| -
 +
|-
 +
|[[Look for the targets]]
 +
|3
 +
|74
 +
|{{IL|Casing...|+6}} (Rare: +8)
 +
|{{IL|Suspicion|+3}}
 +
|-
 +
|[[Examine the target]]
 +
|3
 +
|76
 +
|{{IL|Casing...|+6}}
 +
|{{IL|Suspicion|+1}}
 +
|-
 +
|[[Criminal assistance]]
 +
|3
 +
|78
 +
|{{IL|Casing...|+6}}<br />
 +
{{IL|Whispered Hint|+30 x}}
 +
|{{IL|Casing...|-2}}<br />
 +
{{IL|Suspicion|+2}}
 +
|-
 +
|[[Scapegoats and alibis]]
 +
|3
 +
|80
 +
|{{IL|Casing...|+9}}
 +
|{{IL|Suspicion|+3}}
 +
|-
 +
|[[Formulate a plan]]
 +
|3
 +
|82
 +
|{{IL|Casing...|+9}}
 +
|{{IL|Suspicion|+1}}
 +
|-
 +
|[[The decoy]]
 +
|3
 +
|84
 +
|{{IL|Casing...|+9}}<br />
 +
{{IL|Opening a Bundle of Oddities|Appearance=A Bundle (1-38)}}<br />
 +
|{{IL|Casing...|-3}}<br />
 +
{{IL|Suspicion|+2}}
 +
|-
 +
|[[Well-planned villainy]]<br />
 +
({{IL|A Person of Some Importance -|Appearance=PoSI}})
 +
|5
 +
| -
 +
|{{IL|Casing...|+15}}
 +
| -
 +
|-
 +
|[[Set your gang of hoodlums to business]]<br />
 +
({{IL|A Person of Some Importance -|Appearance=PoSI}} & {{IL|Gang of Hoodlums|Appearance=GoH}})
 +
|5
 +
|100
 +
|{{IL|Casing...|+18}}
 +
|{{IL|Casing...|+3}}
 +
|}
 +
{| class="article-table article-table-selected" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" style="width: 100%;"
 +
|+<br />Summary of redirects
 +
|-
 +
! style="width:25%;" |Option
 +
! Actions
 +
! Requirements
 +
! Redirect to
 +
|-
 +
|-
 +
|[[Dealing with Suspicion]]
 +
| 0
 +
| {{IL|A Name Whispered in Darkness}} exactly 4<br>
 +
{{IL|Casing...}} 5, {{IL|Suspicion|Appearance=}} 2, 50 x {{IL|Rat on a String|Appearance=}}
 +
|[[Dealing with suspicion]]
 +
|-
 +
|[[The Big Score: choose your target]]
 +
| 0
 +
| {{IL|Casing...}} 5
 +
|[[The Big Score: Choose a Target]]
 +
|-
 +
|[[Get ready for your Heist!]]
 +
| 0
 +
| {{IL|Casing...}} 5<br>
 +
{{IL|Planning a Heist:}}
 +
|[[Prepare your Heist]]
 +
|-
 +
|[[Sell information 0|Sell information]]
 +
| 0
 +
| {{IL|Casing...}} 3
 +
|[[Sell information]]
 +
|}
 +
 +
=== When should I use what options? ===
 +
The math to calculate the average value of an option over many repetitions is called "[https://www.learningaboutelectronics.com/Articles/Expected-value-calculator.php Expected Value]." To do this by hand, multiply the numeric value all possible outcomes by the percentage of it succeeding. For example, with "The Decoy" at its base difficulty (boosted Shadowy 84), you have a 60% chance of success (+9 Casing) and a 40% chance of failure (-3 Casing). When you do the math--0.6*9 + 0.4*-3 = 4.2--you see that on average you get 4.2 points every time (and it takes 3 actions, so that's 1.4 points per action), and that it would be more efficient, Casing-wise, to do an easier challenge, even if it only gives you 6 points per 3 actions. Since, at this difficulty, you also have a flat 40% chance of two points of Suspicion, "Formulate a plan" would still be better, since its penalty is only one point of suspicion (and no drop in casing), even if you don't care as much about Casing efficiency.
 +
 +
Likewise, using this math, we can see that "Set your gang of hoodlums to business" is more casing-efficient than "Well-planned villainy," but only if your success chance is above 80%--80% is dead even, but since realistically you don't have infinite actions, at 80% exactly you should use "Well-planned villainy" unless you are also trying to grind Shadowy.
 +
 +
In terms of pure Casing-per-action efficiency, if you can't 100% "Scapegoats and alibis" (the lowest challenge of the +9 casing options, aka 3 CPA) and you're not a PoSI, you are better off trying to [[Steal Paintings for the Topsy King]], and choosing to "Steal a painting from a noted gallery," which gives 3 CPA on success at a much less difficult Shadowy challenge. (This is the same yield at 100% as "Well-planned villainy" and any 100% +9 options, but takes more clicks.)

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