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* [[Noman's Progress]] Card is available as long as you have a Noman, but your pails will melt the first TTH after January 29th, which provides a melt date of January 29 - February 5th, or 25-31 days maximum. | * [[Noman's Progress]] Card is available as long as you have a Noman, but your pails will melt the first TTH after January 29th, which provides a melt date of January 29 - February 5th, or 25-31 days maximum. | ||
* Your Noman will cost between 4-15 Taste of Lacre. This should have minimal impact on your pails required, as the "free" lacre and pails from Advent and the 12 Days can comfortably get you to 10, and as we'll find out we won't be waiting longer than January 13th: we need as much time with our Noman as we can to fill it with lacre. | * Your Noman will cost between 4-15 Taste of Lacre. This should have minimal impact on your pails required, as the "free" lacre and pails from Advent and the 12 Days can comfortably get you to 10, and as we'll find out we won't be waiting longer than January 13th: we need as much time with our Noman as we can to fill it with lacre. | ||
| − | * Based on a slightly efficient deck, we expect the Urchin Card every | + | * Based on a slightly efficient deck, we expect the Urchin Card every 50th Draw and the Noman Card every 11th Draw. At some point we'll explore the effects of grinding that down even farther. |
==Whitsunoman== | ==Whitsunoman== | ||
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==Card Draw== | ==Card Draw== | ||
===A Summary of Cards in my London Deck:=== | ===A Summary of Cards in my London Deck:=== | ||
| − | * | + | * 46 Standard 100% |
* 1 Infrequent 80% | * 1 Infrequent 80% | ||
| − | * | + | * 11 Very Infrequent 50% |
| − | * | + | * 7 Unusual 20% |
| − | * | + | * 3 Rare 10% |
===Estimate=== | ===Estimate=== | ||
| − | A crass calculation ''(not quite how Card probability work)'' puts the odds of an Urchin draw with 4 kept in hand at 10/( | + | A crass calculation ''(not quite how Card probability work)'' puts the odds of an Urchin draw with 4 kept in hand at 10/(42*10+1*8+11*5+7*2+3*1): |
| − | * About | + | * About 2% |
| − | * | + | * ~18.3% at least once in 10 |
| − | * About every | + | * About every 50th Draw |
| − | A similar calculation puts Noman's progress at 50/(50+ | + | A similar calculation puts Noman's progress at 50/(50+500): |
| − | * About | + | * About 9.09% |
| − | * | + | * ~61.4% at least once in 10 |
| − | * About every | + | * About every 11th Draw |
===Considerations Possible But Not Taken=== | ===Considerations Possible But Not Taken=== | ||
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* [[A Day with God's Editors]] | * [[A Day with God's Editors]] | ||
* [[A day at the races]] | * [[A day at the races]] | ||
| + | * [[A Dream of Roses]] | ||
* [[A past benefactor]] | * [[A past benefactor]] | ||
* [[A Polite Invitation]] | * [[A Polite Invitation]] | ||
* [[A Public Lecture]] | * [[A Public Lecture]] | ||
* [[A Visit]] | * [[A Visit]] | ||
| + | * [[All fear the Overgoat!]] | ||
* [[Altars and Alms-Houses: the Church]] | * [[Altars and Alms-Houses: the Church]] | ||
* [[An Evening at the Clay Tailor's]] ''avoidable, but a club's useful for the Notability Grind'' | * [[An Evening at the Clay Tailor's]] ''avoidable, but a club's useful for the Notability Grind'' | ||
* [[An unusual wager]] | * [[An unusual wager]] | ||
| + | * [[Back to the Palace cellars]] | ||
* [[Bandages and Dust: The Tomb-Colonies]] | * [[Bandages and Dust: The Tomb-Colonies]] | ||
* [[Bringing the revolution]] | * [[Bringing the revolution]] | ||
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* [[Mirrors and Clay]] | * [[Mirrors and Clay]] | ||
* [[Mr Wines is holding a sale!]] | * [[Mr Wines is holding a sale!]] | ||
| + | * [[One's public]] | ||
* [[Park and Palace: Society]] | * [[Park and Palace: Society]] | ||
| + | * [[Providing for the revels]] | ||
* [[Slime and Amber: the Rubbery Men]] | * [[Slime and Amber: the Rubbery Men]] | ||
* [[The Alleys of London: the Criminals]] | * [[The Alleys of London: the Criminals]] | ||
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* [[The Cities that Fell]] | * [[The Cities that Fell]] | ||
* [[The Demi-Monde: Bohemians]] | * [[The Demi-Monde: Bohemians]] | ||
| + | * [[The Geology of Winewound]] | ||
* [[The Life of Crime]] >=( | * [[The Life of Crime]] >=( | ||
* [[The Lofty Tower: the Potential of Premises at the Bazaar]] ''gotta live somewhere'' | * [[The Lofty Tower: the Potential of Premises at the Bazaar]] ''gotta live somewhere'' | ||
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* [[Wanted: Reminders of Brighter Days]] | * [[Wanted: Reminders of Brighter Days]] | ||
* [[Weather at last]] | * [[Weather at last]] | ||
| + | * [[What will you do with your Grubby Kitten?]] ''avoidable if you have all your Wild Words ready in advance on hand'' | ||
* [[Whispers from the Surface: The Great Game]] | * [[Whispers from the Surface: The Great Game]] | ||
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* [[A dream of a dark, dark room]] ''can be avoided with planning'' | * [[A dream of a dark, dark room]] ''can be avoided with planning'' | ||
* [[A dream of a mouldering library]] ''can be avoided with planning'' | * [[A dream of a mouldering library]] ''can be avoided with planning'' | ||
| + | * [[A merry sort of crime]] | ||
* [[A Presumptuous Little Opportunity]] | * [[A Presumptuous Little Opportunity]] | ||
* [[An Unsigned Message]] ''Notability may be necessary'' | * [[An Unsigned Message]] ''Notability may be necessary'' | ||
* [[The Capering Relicker and Gulliver are Outside in the Street]] | * [[The Capering Relicker and Gulliver are Outside in the Street]] | ||
| + | * [[The Coquettish Relicker and Mathilde are Making the Rounds]] | ||
* [[The Curt Relicker and Montgomery are Moving Quietly Past]] | * [[The Curt Relicker and Montgomery are Moving Quietly Past]] | ||
* __The Secular Missionary, Happy__ ''a short break is possible, but probably unnecessary'' | * __The Secular Missionary, Happy__ ''a short break is possible, but probably unnecessary'' | ||
| + | * [[The Shivering Relicker and Pinnock are Trundling By]] | ||
* __Bifurcated Owl__ ''I'm not regrinding that unless it's SUPER helpful'' | * __Bifurcated Owl__ ''I'm not regrinding that unless it's SUPER helpful'' | ||
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* [[A dream about the mist]] | * [[A dream about the mist]] | ||
* [[A dream about an angry mountain]] | * [[A dream about an angry mountain]] | ||
| + | * [[A fine day in the Flit]] | ||
* [[City Vices: a tournament of weasels!]] | * [[City Vices: a tournament of weasels!]] | ||
| + | * [[The Paronomastic Newshound]] | ||
* [[Where's my soul?]] ''solvable if I weren't so careless'' | * [[Where's my soul?]] ''solvable if I weren't so careless'' | ||
====Rare 10%==== | ====Rare 10%==== | ||
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* [[A dusty bookshop]] | * [[A dusty bookshop]] | ||
* [[A little omen]] | * [[A little omen]] | ||
| − | * [[A | + | * [[A voice from a well]] |
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===A Non-exhaustive List of Conditions to maintain:=== | ===A Non-exhaustive List of Conditions to maintain:=== | ||
