Thanks! I'm still a newb without Renown ;)
Okay so -2.5 SPA, Scandal costs 1/2.5 actions (0.4).
At Persuasive=100
P_send = 0.6*100/175 = 0.343; Fail_send = 0.657
P_doin = 0.6*100/100 = 0.6; Fail_send = 0.4
Honey_send = 0.343*125 = 42.5
Honey_doin = 0.6*50 = 30
scandalCost_send = 1*0.657*0.4 = 0.26; total action cost for H_send = 1.26
scandalCost_doin = 2*0.4*0.4 = 0.32; total action cost for H_doin = 1.32
fullHPA_send = 42.5/1.26 = 33.7
fullHPA_doin = 30/1.32 = 22.7
Still significantly better to use "Send him out" at minimum Persuasive required to unlock either of the options (assuming POSI wasn't reached moodily).
Assuming "moody" POSI, Persuasive = 78 and Lead Eversong Scandal Reduction
P_send = 0.6*78/175 = 0.267; Fail_send = 0.733
P_doin = 0.6*78/100 = 0.468; Fail_send = 0.532
Honey_send = 0.267*125 = 33.4
Honey_doin = 0.468*50 = 23.4
scandalCost_send = 1*0.733*0.4 = 0.293; total action cost for H_send = 1.293
scandalCost_doin = 2*0.532*0.4 = 0.426, total action cost for H_doin = 1.426
fullHPA_send = 33.4/1.293 = 25.8
fullHPA_doin = 23.4/1.426 = 16.4