Math is hard
From Fallen London Wiki (Staging)
Re: Winking Isle... if you always get more progress on a success than you lose on a failure, is it really that much better to go for a 60% luck check versus a 50% check that gives (or takes) 1.5x more FAM?
It definitely sucks either way to get a bad RNG streak, but when you're going for 60000 you're likely to come out ahead anyway...