Devise a more direct application

A player-created Guide is available for this content: Hearts' Game (Guide)

How are the above links here?

ID: 258858

Spoiler warning! This page contains details about Fallen London Actions.

From: Nine of Livers: The Calculations

Could this knowledge be used the other way around?

Game Instructions: This will give you some progress.

Unlocked with  4

Challenge information

Broad, 180

• 123 - very chancy (41%)
• 153 - chancy (51%)
• 183 - modest (61%)
• 213 - very modest (71%)
• 244 - low-risk (81%)
• 273 - straightforward (91%)
• 300 - straightforward (100%)
  

Each point of increases the base difficulty by ? points.

Success

Delicate motions

[…] a few minor accidents – a cobblestone out of place here and there. Your target's habitual movements are subtly adjusted […] their ordinary stop at the local for a bitter is delayed just so. When they finally sit […] for their drink, they find it quite toxic.

[Find the rest of the story at https://www.fallenlondon.com]

• Shadowy is increasing…
•  Poisoner's Progress is increasing… (+(6 + 1 with - Tolerance) CP, minimum 1)
•  You've gained 1 x Hearts' Game: Exploits
•  Elusiveness of your Target is increasing… (+3 CP) (applied with probability based on ) ^{What does this mean?}
•  Poison Tolerance of Your Target is increasing… (+2 CP) (applied with probability based on ) ^{What does this mean?}
•  You've gained 1 x Hearts' Game: Turns this Round (hidden)

Failure

Unlucky

You spend a whole afternoon subtly rearranging matters in the target's path, such as to create an advantageous delay – only to find that […] he has chosen to stay home with his pipe and a […] book. […] "That's expected to happen about one time in seven..."

[Find the rest of the story at https://www.fallenlondon.com]

• Shadowy is increasing…
•  You've gained 1 x Hearts' Game: Exploits
•  Elusiveness of your Target is increasing… (+3 CP) (applied with probability based on ) ^{What does this mean?}
•  Poison Tolerance of Your Target is increasing… (+2 CP) (applied with probability based on ) ^{What does this mean?}
•  Hearts' Game: Counterplay is increasing… (+0-1 CP)
•  You've gained 1 x Hearts' Game: Turns this Round (hidden)