Fidgeting Writer (Guide)

Early PoSI Content

Fidgeting Writer Summary
Semi-Fixed-Length Conversion Activity
Setup				Progress				End
0 A				1-7 A				0-1 A
Progress Details			Roll double or nothing on output items.
Items Inputs/Outputs Start-up Inputs Outputs
Raw EPA			2.22			Raw SPA			-

General

The story started by using a in your inventory and reading about the Mottled Man. It could be compared to a Double or Nothing game, where you have to risk everything you've wagered so far and a little more on a luck chance.

To finish the story you need a boosted of 120, but everyone can start it.

See Category:Fidgeting Writer for all the pages connected with this storyline.

Actions

Base item	Safe choice	Safe choice rewards	Continue choice	Required items	Required items found via	Odds to progress	Odds from start to this stage
			There's something familiar about this tale...		Steal Tales of Terror from a noted author	70%
	Put the thought aside		Track down the Fidgeting Writer		Convert Correspondence Plaque	70%	70%
	Publish a paper on the subject and think no more about it		Cancel your appointments and investigate the ideogram		Convert Journal of Infamy via Steal Journals of Infamy from an Iniquitous Solicitor	70%	49%
	Tell him all you know and abandon your research		Make a counter-offer		Steal Brilliant Souls en route to Hookman House	60%	34.3%
	Give him honey and a pen		Visit him regularly and ask the Manager about his stay		Convert Vision of the Surface to Mystery of the Elder Continent to Scrap of Incendiary Gossip	50%	20.58%
	Burn his works. Break his pen. Escort him to the Royal Beth		Make him dream and see what he sees		Steal Tales of Terror or Journals of Infamy and convert	50%	10.29%
	Smash it		Look through the Lens		A Boxful of Intrigue	50%	5.145%
							2.5725%

Expected Costs

Goal	Expected number of actions	Expected cost	Expected cost in echoes	Expected gain in echoes per action	Expected gain in echoes per action including upconverting
	2.43		0.71	0.74	0.48
	4.47		1.73	0.73	0.40
	7.38		3.91	1.16	0.69
	13.31		8.18	1.26	0.72
	27.62		21.36	1.49 2.22 w/ Ratket	0.79
	56.23		47.71	1.82	1.02
	113.46		100.42	1.87	1.04

Find the distribution

For a distribution of how many coruscating souls (or other things) you should expect for a number of attempted cycles, a binomial distribution will give a good indication. Find a binomial calculator (like this one) and let n be the amount of attempted cycles, p be the probability of going from the start to the finish (0.025725 for souls), and x be the amount of souls you want to calculate. For souls the expected amount of actions is approx. 2.9 times the amount of cycles, but this will vary slightly depending on the chosen item. The action conversion probably makes this slightly inaccurate, but a good approximation nevertheless. This does not take into account the number of actions needed for accumulating other items.

Below is an example for 35 cycles (~100 actions), showing there's a 60% chance you'll have a soul in 35 cycles.