Editing Forgotten Quarter Expeditions (Guide)

{{GuideFor|Location = Base-Camp|Pages = February has Taken an Interest#Begin an Expedition in the Forgotten Quarter#Hearing Rumours of the Heroic Archaeologist's Progress#Hearing Rumours of the Lugubrious Seamstress' Progress#Prepare for an Expedition#Crate of Expedition Supplies#An Expedition:#Rivals' Progress#Archaeologist#Hearing Rumours of Orthos' Progress#Hearing Rumours of Virginia's Progress#Hearing Rumours of Monsieur Pleat's Progress}}{{Audience|EarlyMYN}}[[File:Forgottenquarter2.png|right]]
{{ActivitySummary
|Activity=Forgotten Quarter Expeditions
|Starting Actions=1
|Length=Limited
|Progress Actions=7.33+/13.66+/20+/27.33+
|Ending Actions=1/2
|Progress Details=Build up {{IL|Crate of Expedition Supplies|Appearance=Supplies}} and then spend them to increase {{IL|Archaeologist's Progress|Appearance=Progress}} to the required distance.
|Output Items=*{{IL|Uncovering an Unpredictable Treasure:|Appearance=Unpredictable Treasure}}
*{{IL|Shard of Glim}}
*{{IL|Soul}}
*{{IL|Eyeless Skull}}
*{{IL|Extraordinary Implication}}
*{{IL|Whispered Hint}}
*{{IL|Searing Enigma}}
*{{IL|Antique Mystery}}
*{{IL|Magnificent Diamond}}
*{{IL|Judgements' Egg}}
*{{IL|Parabola-Linen Scrap}}
*{{IL|Portfolio of Souls}}
*{{IL|Bright Brass Skull}}
*{{IL|Night-Whisper}}
*{{IL|Direful Reflection}}
*{{IL|Nodule of Warm Amber}}
*{{IL|Puzzling Map}}
*{{IL|Silent Soul}}
*{{IL|Uncanny Incunabulum}}
|Raw EPA = 5.32
|EPA Notes - Tomb of silken thread, 10 to gain, 10 to go, 1 to start, 1 to end, 1 to ratmarket.
|Locked=Yes
|Conversion=Yes
|Input Items=*{{IL|Whispered Hint}}
*{{IL|Appalling Secret}}
*{{IL|Page of Prelapsarian Archaeological Notes}}
*{{IL|Penny}}
*{{IL|Favours: The Docks}}
*{{IL|Strong-Backed Labour}}
}}

{{GuideNeedsWork|Forgotten Quarter expeditions now are one time fate costs. But with lower rewards on repeat. What are they? <br>Additionally, new options for supplies do not yet have cost analysis on them relevant to other options.}}
You can start doing expeditions in {{IL|Base-Camp}} once you have [[Set Up Camp]] in the Forgotten Quarter. This requires a Route to the Forgotten Quarter and will therefore be available to most players at {{IL|A Name in Seven Secret Alphabets}} 5.

In order to start with expeditions you also have to '''[[Learn the Traditions of the Forgotten Quarter]]''' to gain your first point of {{IL|Archaeologist}} unlocking the first expedition; this will cost {{IL|Tale of Terror!!|1 x}}, {{IL|Cryptic Clue|250 x}}s and {{IL|Whispered Hint|1000 x}}s.

Expeditions take the form of three stages: Preparation, Excavation and Loot!

==Preparation==
[[File:Toolbox.png|right]]
The goal of preparing is to get as many {{IL|Crate of Expedition Supplies|Appearance=Supplies}} as possible. The cap is 100, and you can use supplies left over from other {{IL|An Expedition:|Appearance=Expeditions}}, so there's no need to worry too much about overpreparing. If anything, it's advisable to cap out at 100 before beginning your expedition. There's nothing more embarrassing than failing because you were missing the single unit of supplies needed to arrive at your objective.
For most players, {{IL|Strong-Backed Labour}} and {{IL|Favours: The Docks}} will be the way to go.

*'''[[Rumours of treasure]]''': Costs {{IL|Whispered Hint|200 x}}s. Provides either 1 Supply and {{IL|Map Scrap|1 x}} or 2 Supplies. The ratio of the successes is 60:40, gaining '''1.4 S/A''' (1 or 2) at '''1.39 E/S'''.<ref>(200 WH are worth {{E}}2; this earns on average six tenths of a supply and six pennies worth of MS plus four tenths of two supplies, resulting in 2.00 less 0.06 Echoes for 1.4 supplies; 1.94 ÷ 1.40 = 1.386).</ref>  <ref name="posi">With {{IL|A Person of Some Importance -}} it is better to sell these and buy {{IL|Strong-Backed Labour}} instead.</ref>

*'''[[Blood-red tales]]''': Costs {{IL|Appalling Secret|10 x}}s. Provides 1 Supply and 1 CP to {{IL|Nightmares}}. Simple stuff, '''1 S/A''' at '''1.5 E/S''', making this slower, costlier and more menacing than using the previous method.<ref name="posi"/>

*'''[[Your own expertise]]''': Costs {{IL|Page of Prelapsarian Archaeological Notes|Appearance=Prelapsarian Archaeological Notes|10 x}}, obtained from Scientific Expeditions at Zee. Provides 1 Supply. This is not the most viable option since you'll be spending a long time both converting or gaining them.

*'''[[Show us the money 2|Show us the money]]''': Costs 4 actions and 1000 pence. Provides 4 Supplies. '''1 S/A''' at '''2.5 E/S''', which is slower than the Rumours of treasure option but slightly less expensive if those {{IL|Whispered Hint}}s have to be purchased from the Bazaar (as that doubles the cost to {{E}}4 for 200WH, or 2.8 E/S).<ref name="posi"/>

*'''[[Ply your team with drink]]''': Costs {{IL|Bottle of Strangling Willow Absinthe|3 x}}. Provides 1 supply. '''1 S/A''' at '''1.5 E/S'''

*'''[[Thieves and cracksmen]]''': Costs {{IL|Piece of Rostygold|160 x}}. Provides 1 supply. '''1 S/A''' at '''1.6  E/S'''

*'''[[Hire 'local' knowledge]]''': Costs {{IL|Moon-pearl|160 x}}. Provides 1 supply. '''1 S/A''' at '''1.6 0E/S'''

*'''[[Hire a porter from the docks]]''': Requires 5 {{IL|Renown: The Docks}} and {{IL|Favours: The Docks| 3 x}}, in return for 7 Supplies. The most economical way to gain Favours is via opportunity cards. See [[Faction: The Docks/Notable Favour Sources|this page]] for a list of some notable sources of Favours.<p>Note that this will slow down the process of gaining Renown. Also, once you [[Associating with Radical Academics (Guide)|unlock]] {{IL|Tribute}} in {{IL|The Labyrinth of Tigers}}, Dock Favours can be more profitably spent on Tribute.</p>

*'''[[Burly guards and porters]]''': Costs {{IL|Strong-Backed Labour|1 x}}, provides 3 supplies.

** These cost {{E}}3.5 at the {{IL|Bazaar Side-streets}}, resulting in '''1.5 S/A''' but costing '''1.2 E/S'''.  This is both faster and less expensive than using {{IL|Whispered Hint}}s.

**Alternatively, if you have plenty of {{IL|Piece of Rostygold|Appearance=Rostygold}}, {{IL|Moon-Pearl}}s, {{IL|Compromising Document}}s and {{IL|An Identity Uncovered!|Appearance=Identities Uncovered}}, you may create SBL in {{IL|The Clay Quarters}}, resulting in a potential '''2.0 S/A''' but costing '''0.9 E/S''' in supplies, as well as a fee for entering the quarters (see table). N.B.'''2.0 S/A''' is the best-case - if you obtain fewer at a time, it is worse due to the entrance action [e.g.: one action to enter; 5x [[Recruit_Clay_Man_labour]] nets {{IL|Strong-Backed Labour|Appearance=SBL|10 x}}; convert into 30 supplies, for 16 actions (1 Entrance + 5 Recruits + 10 Conversions), or '''1.9 S/A''' at roughly '''~0.9 E/S''' depending on the entrance fee.] N.B. also each Recruit action is +3CP {{IL|Ruthless}} and -3CP {{IL|Magnanimous}}.

**You can also get {{IL|Strong-Backed Labour|3 x|Appearance=SBL}} from the [[Underclay (Guide)|Underclay]] for 5 actions with 147 {{IL|Shadowy}} (and/or {{IL|Mithridacy}}), which provides 9 supplies for 8 actions, or '''1.1 S/A''' at zero cost in Echoes or other items. Without stats to 100% the tests, this will take an increased number of actions, however.

**At Jericho Locks, if you put up a [[Put up a statue honouring the Bishop of Southwark|specific statue]], you can   [[Call in favours from the Church (Bishop of Southwark)]] on the [[Under_the_Statue_at_Jericho_Locks]] card for  {{IL|Strong-Backed Labour|Appearance=SBL|5 x}}. Assuming one action to get the Church favour, you can get 15 supplies for 7 actions, or '''2.1 S/A''', at no cost. However, this requires 2 card draws, so the opportunity to use this method is not always available.

Summarised in the table below:
<div class="table-container">
{| class="wikitable sortable"
|+ Burly guards and porters
|-
! Option !! Cost !! Stats for 100% !! E/S (materials) !! A/S !! E/S (est. total) Assumes an opportunity cost of 2.5 EPA
|-
|[[Hire Strong-Backed Labour]]
|{{TableList|{{IL|A Person of Some Importance -|Appearance=PoSI}}|{{IL|Pence|350 x}}}}
| None || 1.17 E/S  || 0.67 A/S || 2.85 E/S
|-
|[[Recruit Clay Man labour]]
(10x{{IL|Strong-Backed Labour|Appearance=}} at a time)<ref name="ClayQuarters">Visiting the Clay Quarters takes an extra action to get in, so more labour per visit improves your efficiency. Examples are given for buying 10 labour (spending {{IL|An Identity Uncovered!|Appearance=Identities Uncovered|5 x}} and five actions in the Clay Quarter), and for the ideal limiting case of buying in very large amounts.</ref><ref>Visiting the Clay Quarters costs {{IL|Tale of Terror!!|1 x}} ({{E}}0.5) with {{IL|Mired in Clay}} ≤ 2, and {{IL|Inkling of Identity|Appearance=Inklings of Identity|2 x}} ({{E}}0.2) with {{IL|Mired in Clay}} ≥ 3. The above assumes the latter option.</ref>
| {{TableList|
     {{IL|Moon-Pearl|Appearance=x250}} |
     {{IL|Piece of Rostygold|Appearance=x250}} |
     {{IL|Compromising Document|Appearance=x20}} |
     {{IL|An Identity Uncovered!|Appearance=x5}}}}
| None 
| {{TableList|.94 E/S ({{IL|Mired in Clay|Appearance=≤2}}) |.93 E/S ({{IL|Mired in Clay|Appearance=≥3}})}}
| .53 A/S  || 2.26 E/S
|-
| [[Recruit Clay Man labour]]
(in bulk)<ref name=ClayQuarters />
|Per 2 {{IL|Strong-Backed Labour|Appearance=}}:
  {{TableList|
     {{IL|Moon-Pearl|Appearance=x50}} |
     {{IL|Piece of Rostygold|Appearance=x50}} |
     {{IL|Compromising Document|Appearance=x4}} |
     {{IL|An Identity Uncovered!|Appearance=x1}}}}
| None || .92 E/S || .50 A/S || 2.17 E/S
|-
| [[Send an Unfinished Man to Spite]]
| None
| {{TableList|{{IL|Shadowy|Appearance=147}}|or {{IL|Mithridacy|Appearance=15}}}}
| 0 E/S || 0.89 A/S || 2.22 E/S
|}
</div>

<references />

==Expeditions==
Once you've finished up your preparations, you can head out on an Expedition! Once you've chosen your Expedition, you can't go back to get more supplies, so be sure to come prepared. If you run out of Supplies, you'll have to abandon your Expedition, which is a terrible waste. Each of these areas provide different rewards and lore.

{| class="article-table mw-collapsible sortable"
|+'''The Repeatable Expedition Areas are:'''
!Expedition
!width=7%|{{IL|Archaeologist|Appearance=}}
!{{IL|Crate of Expedition Supplies|Appearance=Length}}
!Cost
!Rivals
!Challenge
!Reward 1
!Reward 2
|-
|'''[[Seek a thieves' cache]]''' 
|1
|10
|{{IL|Favours: Criminals|1 x}}
| N/A
|{{TableList|Success|/Alt}}
|{{TableList|{{IL|Uncovering an Unpredictable Treasure:|Appearance=Unpredictable Treasure}} 1-80<ref name=Unpredictable>Details Here: [[Uncovering an Unpredictable Treasure (Guide)]]</ref>|{{IL|Shard of Glim|400 x}}|+1 CP {{IL|Archaeologist}}|(6 to 66.5 {{e}} (31 Avg))}}
|{{TableList|{{IL|Uncovering an Unpredictable Treasure:|Appearance=Unpredictable Treasure}} 1-80<ref name=Unpredictable />|{{IL|Soul|400 x}}|+1 CP {{IL|Archaeologist}}|(12 to 72.5{{e}} (37 Avg))}}
|-
|'''[[Seek a shrine of the Deep Blue Heaven]]'''
|2
|20
| -
|{{TableList|{{IL|Rivals' Progress|Appearance=Standard}}|{{IL|Hearing Rumours of Orthos' Progress|Appearance=Orthos}}}}
|{{TableList|Success/|Rare}}
|{{TableList|{{IL|Uncovering an Unpredictable Treasure:|Appearance=Unpredictable Treasure}} 1-160<ref name=Unpredictable />|+2 CP {{IL|Archaeologist}}|(2 to 125 {{e}} (70.133 Avg))}}
|{{TableList|{{IL|Eyeless Skull|1 x}}|{{IL|Extraordinary Implication}}|{{IL|Whispered Hint|100 x}}|+2 CP {{IL|Archaeologist}}|(66 {{e}})}}
|-
|'''[[The Chalcocite Pagoda]]'''
|2
|20
| -
|{{TableList|{{IL|Rivals' Progress|Appearance=Standard}}|{{IL|Hearing Rumours of the Heroic Archaeologist's Progress|Appearance=Heroic}}}}
|{{IL|Watchful}} 60
|{{TableList|'''Pass:'''|{{IL|Searing Enigma|1 x}}|+1 CP {{IL|Archaeologist}}|(62.5 {{e}})}}
|{{TableList|'''Fail:'''|{{IL|Antique Mystery| 2x}}|{{IL|Magnificent Diamond|1 x}}|+1 CP {{IL|Archaeologist}}|(37.5 {{e}})}}
|-
|'''[[The Tomb of the Silken Thread 1|The Tomb of the Silken Thread]]'''
|2
|30
| -
|{{TableList|{{IL|Rivals' Progress|Appearance=Standard}}|{{IL|Hearing Rumours of the Lugubrious Seamstress' Progress|Appearance=Seamstress}}}}
|{{IL|Watchful|60}}
|{{TableList|'''Pass:'''|{{IL|Judgements' Egg|1 x}}|{{IL|Parabola-Linen Scrap|1 x}}|+1 CP {{IL|Archaeologist}}|(147.5 {{e}}<ref name=ratket>With Ratmarket</ref>)}}
|{{TableList|'''Fail:'''|{{IL|Parabola-Linen Scrap|1 x}}|+1 CP {{IL|Archaeologist}}|(85 {{e}}<ref name=ratket />)}}
|-
|'''[[The Sanctuary of the Crimson Petals]]'''
|2
|40
| -
|{{TableList|{{IL|Rivals' Progress|Appearance=Standard}}|{{IL|Hearing Rumours of the Heroic Archaeologist's Progress|Appearance=Heroic}}}}
|{{TableList|Success/|Rare}}
| {{TableList|{{IL|Portfolio of Souls|1 x}}|{{IL|Bright Brass Skull|2 x}}|+1 CP {{IL|Archaeologist}}|(132.5 {{e}})}}
|{{TableList|{{IL|Night-Whisper|3 x}}|+1 CP {{IL|Archaeologist}}|(255 {{e}}<ref name=ratket />)}}
|-
|'''[[Stonefall Copse]]'''
|1
|20
| -
|{{TableList|{{IL|Rivals' Progress|Appearance=Standard}}|{{IL|Hearing Rumours of Orthos' Progress|Appearance=Orthos}}}}
| -
|colspan=2|{{TableList|{{IL|Puzzling Map|2 x}}|{{IL|Direful Reflection|1 x}}|{{IL|Nodule of Warm Amber|250 x}}|+1 CP {{IL|Archaeologist}}|(62.5 {{e}})}}
|-
|'''[[A Temple of Uttermost Wind]]'''
|2
|30
|{{IL|Fate|7 x}}
|{{TableList|{{IL|Rivals' Progress|Appearance=Standard}}|{{IL|Hearing Rumours of Virginia's Progress|Appearance=Virginia}}}}
|Choice
|{{TableList|{{IL|Uncovering an Unpredictable Treasure:|Appearance=Unpredictable Treasure}} 41-240<ref name=Unpredictable />|{{IL|Extraordinary Implication|1 x}}|+1 CP {{IL|Archaeologist}}|(33.25 to 627.5 {{e}} (162.331 Avg))}}
|{{TableList|{{IL|Uncovering an Unpredictable Treasure:|Appearance=Unpredictable Treasure}} 41-240<ref name=Unpredictable />|{{IL|Silent Soul|1 x}}|+1 CP {{IL|Archaeologist}}|(43.25 to 637.5 {{e}} (172.331 Avg))}}
|-
|'''[[A Gallery of Serpents]]''' 
|3
|40
|{{IL|Fate|7 x}}.
| {{TableList|{{IL|Rivals' Progress|Appearance=Standard}}|{{IL|Hearing Rumours of Monsieur Pleat's Progress|Appearance=Monsieur Pleat}}}}
| -
|colspan=2| {{TableList|{{IL|Uncovering an Unpredictable Treasure:|Appearance=Unpredictable Treasure}} 135?-240<ref name=Unpredictable />|{{IL|Uncanny Incunabulum|0-3 x}}|+1 CP {{IL|Archaeologist}}|(75.20? to 662.5 {{e}} (254.245? Avg))}}
|-
|}

{| class="article-table mw-collapsible mw-sortable"
|+'''The One-Time Expedition Areas are:'''
!Expedition
!{{IL|Archaeologist|Appearance=}}
!{{IL|Crate of Expedition Supplies|Appearance=Length}}
!Cost
!Rivals
!Reward
|-
|'''[[The Tomb of the Seven]]'''
|3
|30
| -
|{{TableList|{{IL|Rivals' Progress|Appearance=Standard}}|{{IL|Hearing Rumours of Orthos' Progress|Appearance=Orthos}}|{{IL|Hearing Rumours of Virginia's Progress|Appearance=Virginia}}}}
|{{IL|Set of Correspondence Stones|1 x}}
|-
|'''[[The Cave of the Nadir]]'''
|5
|60
|{{IL|Eyeless Skull|1 x}}
|{{TableList|{{IL|Rivals' Progress|Appearance=Standard}}|{{IL|February has taken an interest|Appearance=February}}}}
|Opens route to {{IL|Cave of the Nadir}}
|}
<References />

Your {{IL|Archaeologist}} quality cannot be increased beyond level 5.

For training {{IL|Archaeologist}}, A thieves' cache and Deep Blue Heaven are recommended.
For profit, The tomb of the Silken Thread is recommended.

==[[Archaeologist's Progress|Archaeologist's]] and [[Rivals' Progress]]==
To complete an Expedition, you'll need to increase your {{IL|Archaeologist's Progress}} to the required amount which is equal to the minimum number of supplies needed to start the expedition. There is no point to acquiring more than necessary. It is also important to know that you can leave your {{IL|Base-Camp}} to do other things. Although this seems a bit inconsistent with the concept of rivals it is very useful if you are missing an item needed to hinder your rivals (more on this later).

There are three options for progression that are always available. These are all [[broad]] {{IL|Watchful}} challenges:
*'''[[A cautious approach]]''' (50) uses 1 Supply and 1 action to get 1 Progress.
*'''[[A bold approach 2|A bold approach]]''' (100) uses 2 Supplies and 1 action to get 2 Progress.
*'''[[A buccaneering approach]]''' (160) uses 3 Supplies and 1 action to get 3 Progress.
Failing the challenge will consume your Supplies at no Progress gain. Each option, success or failure, changes {{IL|The Airs of the Forgotten Quarter}} quality. This might unlock rare Airs-dependent cards. {{IL|Rivals' Progress}} has a possibility of increasing with each action, with the amount of the increase dependent on which approach was taken and whether or not the result was a failure or a success.

'''Progress '''(per Action) = Supplies invested (1,2 or 3) x Chance of success (/ Actions spent; always 1) = S x C

'''Supplies per Progress '''= S / P = S / (S x C) = 1 / C (how many supplies you need to spend for each progress only depends on your Watchful stat)

'''Rivals' progress per own Progress '''= [Rivals' progress per 1 action] / [own Progress / 1 action] = [RP/A] / [P/A] =  RP / (S x C)

'''own Progress until 10 Rivals' progress''' = 9 Rivals' Progress / (Rivals' Progress / own Progress) = 9 / (R/P) = 9 / (RP / (S x C))

We can determine how much progress we can make before our rivals get ten on their own. Note that you start with {{IL|Rivals' Progress}} 1 into the expedition and that these are numbers that are average results. You might get unlucky and gain rivals' progress on more than half of your actions. Nevertheless, you can approximate how a certain expedition will go rival-wise. You can also tell how many extra supplies you need to bring if you don't want to invest in 100 of them.

{| class="article-table" style="float: rigth; width: 700px;" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="1" border="0"
|+ 
|+ 
|-
! scope="row" |Approach
! scope="col" |Watchful
! scope="col" |Success Chance
! scope="col" |Progress/ Action
! scope="col" |Supplies/ Progress
! scope="col" |Rivals' Progress/ Own Progress
! scope="col" |Average Progress to 10 RP
|-
! scope="row" |Cautious
|42
|50%
|0.5
|2.00
|0.75
|12
|-
! scope="row" |
|50
|60%
|0.6
|1.67
|0.58
|15
|-
! scope="row" |
|59
|70%
|0.7
|1.43
|0.46
|19
|-
! scope="row" |
|67
|80%
|0.8
|1.25
|0.38
|24
|-
! scope="row" |
|75
|90%
|0.9
|1.11
|0.31
|29
|-
! scope="row" |
|84
|100%
|1.0
|1.00
|0.25
|36
|-
! scope="row" |Bold
|84
|50%
|1.0
|2.00
|0.50
|18
|-
! scope="row" |
|101
|60%
|1.2
|1.67
|0.42
|22
|-
! scope="row" |
|118
|70%
|1.4
|1.43
|0.36
|25
|-
! scope="row" |
|134
|80%
|1.6
|1.25
|0.31
|29
|-
! scope="row" |
|152
|90%
|1.8
|1.11
|0.28
|32
|-
! scope="row" |
|167
|100%
|2.0
|1.00
|0.25
|36
|-
! scope="row" |Buccaneering
|135
|50%
|1.5
|2.00
|0.67
|14
|-
! scope="row" |
|162
|60%
|1.8
|1.67
|0.50
|18
|-
! scope="row" |
|189
|70%
|2.1
|1.43
|0.38
|24
|-
! scope="row" |
|215
|80%
|2.4
|1.25
|0.29
|31
|-
! scope="row" |
|242
|90%
|2.7
|1.11
|0.22
|41
|-
! scope="row" |
|267
|100%
|3.0
|1.00
|0.17
|54
|}

The optimal approach based on maximizing the return of Supplies is as follows:
* {{IL|Watchful}} ≤ 118 : Cautions 
* 118 < {{IL|Watchful}} < 218: Bold
* 218 ≤ {{IL|Watchful}} : Buccaneering


Other options unlock under certain conditions, mostly if {{IL|The Airs of the Forgotten Quarter}} are right. The only really interesting one is [[A sign?]] which gives you 4 progress without cost or risk of advancing your rivals.
*'''[[A supply cache! (20 FATE)]]''' (0-9 Expedition Supplies)
*'''[[A light caught by snow]]''' (11 Airs)
*'''[[The tent-city]]''' (22 Airs)
*'''[[White walls in the sun]]''' (33 Airs)
*'''[[An afternoon off (1 FATE)]]''' (85–90 Airs)
*'''[[A sign?]]''' (96+ Airs and 1+ Expedition Supplies)
*'''[[A cautious day]]''' (95+ Airs and An Expedition: Seeking the Cave of the Nadir)
If you run out of supplies you will have to [[Resupply]] ending your current attempt and resetting your progress.

The same happens if your {{IL|Rivals' Progress}} reaches 10 and you have to [[Concede]]. This however might be averted.

==Hindering your Rivals==
[[File:Follow2.png|right]]

Either through the length of your expedition or sheer bad luck, your {{IL|Rivals' Progress}} will grow. There are two ways to avoid conceding, though. Both require you to pass a skill challenge. One is the Airs-dependent storylet options that show up every now and then if your rivals' progress is between 3–9. They will reduce your rivals' progress by 2 at the cost of 1 unit of supplies and various items. Note that these are specific to certain characters which needs to be mentioned when you start the expedition.

*'''[[A chance to hinder Dr Orthos]]''' (90–100 Airs, {{IL|Watchful}} 80): costs {{IL|Intriguing Snippet|1 x}}.
*'''[[A chance to hinder Virginia]]''' (80–90 Airs, {{IL|Persuasive}} 50): costs {{IL|Stolen Correspondence|10 x}} and {{IL|Touching Love Story|1 x}}.
*'''[[A chance to hinder your rival, February]]''' (50–60 Airs, {{IL|Watchful}} 120): costs {{IL|Presbyterate Passphrase|1 x}}, {{IL|Bottle of Broken Giant 1844|1 x}}, {{IL|An Identity Uncovered!|1 x}} and {{IL|Favours: The Great Game|1 x}}.
*'''[[A chance to hinder the Heroic Archaeologist]]''' (80–90 Airs, {{IL|Persuasive}} 50): costs {{IL|Romantic Notion|5 x}}s and {{IL|Touching Love Story|1 x}}.
*'''[[A chance to hinder the Lugubrious Seamstress]]''' (80–90 Airs, {{IL|Persuasive}} 50): costs {{IL|Unearthly Fossil|1 x}} and {{IL|Zee-Ztory|1 x}}.

Should your {{IL|Rivals' Progress}} reach 10, you can spend 10 supplies to [[Confront a Rival]]. Confronting a named rival will cost 4 actions and end their involvement in the expedition, so you can only do this once per character. Successful countering also drops rivals' progress back to 1, though it doesn't prevent a rival threat to grow up again. If there are no named rivals left, the generic [[Other Rivals]] option appears and can be played until you lack the resources to do so.

*'''[[Assault Orthos' camp]]''' ({{IL|Dangerous}} 80): +5 AP, costs {{IL|Bottle of Greyfields 1879|Appearance=Bottles of Greyfields 1879|200 x}}.
*'''[[Bribe Virginia]]''' ({{IL|Watchful}} 50): +3 AP, costs {{IL|Brilliant Soul|10 x}}s.
*'''[[Challenge February to a competition]]''' ({{IL|Watchful}} 120): +3 AP, costs {{IL|Favours: Revolutionaries|1 x}}.
*'''[[Rescue the Heroic Archaeologist]]''' ({{IL|Dangerous}} 60): +3 AP, requires no additional expenses.
*'''[[Distract the Lugubrious Seamstress]]''' ({{IL|Persuasive}} 72): +3–5 AP, costs {{IL|Bottle of Strangling Willow Absinthe|Appearance=Bottles of Strangling Willow Absinthe|10 x}}.
*'''[[Other Rivals]]''' ({{IL|Watchful}} 50 + {{IL|Crate of Expedition Supplies|Appearance=Supplies}} 10): costs {{IL|Cryptic Clue|20 x}}s.

==Late Mid-Game, Minimised Number of Actions Guide==
The following is a guide for players who have been playing this game for a long, long time, and wish to keep their action point use to a minimum while finding treasure.

'''<u>Restrictions:</u>''' To minimise the number of actions that you will need to finish the expedition, follow these restrictions:
# No {{IL|Sudden Insight}}s: Using these means that you will have to factor in the actions which were spent to obtain the Second Chances. This not only extends the number of actions, but also complicates the estimations.
# Always use [[A buccaneering approach]]: This is obviously the fastest of the three non-luck-dependent ways of accumulating progress. Also, the {{IL|Rivals' Progress}} hindrance will only rarely be an issue, as you will outpace your rivals using this method.
# Obtain supplies through spending {{IL|Favours: The Docks}} gained through opportunity cards: As mentioned earlier in this page, this method of gaining supplies is the most economical and efficient in the long-run. This will be needed in order to squeeze the most profit out of any outcome for the expedition.<p>Alternatively, Strong-Backed Labour from the Underclay can be used.</p>
#* Note that after you unlock {{IL|Tribute}}, Dock Favours can be more profitably spent on Tribute instead of expeditions.

'''<u>{{IL|Watchful}} requirements:</u>''' In order to achieve 100% success on [[A buccaneering approach]], you will need to reach 267 Watchful. After all, no Sudden Insights are to be used, and any setback due to failure can dash away a lot of potential profit. Increasing your base Watchful above 200 is recommended, but it's possible without that if you can put an extremely Watchful outfit together.

<u>'''Number of Actions Points Needed:'''</u> The number of action points you need is determined using the following stages of the expedition. Note that conservative assumptions are used, with the main one being ''no occurrence of good luck''. You need 30 points of Archaeologist's Progress to end the expedition successfully, and you start with 1.
* '''Obtaining {{IL|Favours: The Docks}} to be converted into supplies''': The expedition ''nominally'' needs 30 supplies.
* '''Starting the expedition''': 1 action
* '''Accumulating progress:''' You will need to use [[A buccaneering approach]] several times, possibly followed by one of the other choices. Gaining 29 progress requires 10 actions. Rivals' Progress is not expected to be an issue, if you can pass every Watchful check for accumulating progress.
* '''Completing the expedition''': 1 Action point to end the expedition successfully.

'''<u>Modifiers due to good luck:</u>''' Currently, the only known moment when good luck can occur is during Archaeologist's Progress accumulation.
* '''Good luck''': If you have good luck, you can score [[A sign?]]. This option grants 4 points of Archaeologist's Progress, meaning that 4 crates of supplies are saved. This in turn means that you save Action points which are needed to get the Docks' Favour for these supplies. (You may also save 1 Action point, if the new value is divisible by 3.)
*It's optimal to take the non-buccaneering action before the very final action of the expedition, so that potential Signs found will have a bigger effect. You need to draw A Sign twice in order for it to save an action on this expedition.

===End-game version===
This version assumes {{IL|Strong-Backed Labour}} sourced with [[Call_in_favours_from_the_Church_(Bishop_of_Southwark)|Bishop of Southwark]], and [[A buccaneering approach|buccaneering]] at 100% success.

Counting each SBL as costing 2.5 Echoes instead of actions, supplies are gained at 3 S/A and 0.83 E/S.

Supply Costs:
* 29 supplies * 3 S/A = 9.67 actions
* 29 supplies * 0.83 E/S = 24.07 Echoes

Expedition Actions:
* 1 action to start + 1 action to finish + 1 to convert reward on the Rat Market + 10 actions in the Expedition = 13 actions

Reward for Tomb of the Silken Thread Expedition:
* 147.5 Echoes

Net Earnings:
* (147.5 E - 22.67 E) / (13 A + 9.67 A) = 123.43 E / 22.67 A = 5.44 EPA

This doesn't take into account occasionally getting [[A sign?]], which would save supplies and thus increase profit.

[[Category:Guides]]