Forgotten Quarter Expeditions (Guide)

Early MYN Content

Forgotten Quarter Expeditions Summary
Locked Limited-Length Conversion Activity
Setup				Progress				End
1 A				7.33+/13.66+/20+/27.33++ A				1/2 A
Progress Details			Build up Supplies and then spend them to increase Progress to the required distance.
Items Inputs/Outputs Inputs Outputs Unpredictable Treasure
Raw EPA			5.32			Raw SPA			-

This guide is incomplete. You can help by expanding it.

What needs work: Forgotten Quarter expeditions now are one time fate costs. But with lower rewards on repeat. What are they?
Additionally, new options for supplies do not yet have cost analysis on them relevant to other options.

You can start doing expeditions in once you have Set Up Camp in the Forgotten Quarter. This requires a Route to the Forgotten Quarter and will therefore be available to most players at 5.

In order to start with expeditions you also have to Learn the Traditions of the Forgotten Quarter to gain your first point of unlocking the first expedition; this will cost , s and s.

Expeditions take the form of three stages: Preparation, Excavation and Loot!

Preparation

The goal of preparing is to get as many Supplies as possible. The cap is 100, and you can use supplies left over from other Expeditions, so there's no need to worry too much about overpreparing. If anything, it's advisable to cap out at 100 before beginning your expedition. There's nothing more embarrassing than failing because you were missing the single unit of supplies needed to arrive at your objective. For most players, and will be the way to go.

• Rumours of treasure: Costs s. Provides either 1 Supply and or 2 Supplies. The ratio of the successes is 60:40, gaining 1.4 S/A (1 or 2) at 1.39 E/S.

• Blood-red tales: Costs s. Provides 1 Supply and 1 CP to . Simple stuff, 1 S/A at 1.5 E/S, making this slower, costlier and more menacing than using the previous method.

• Your own expertise: Costs 10 x  Prelapsarian Archaeological Notes, obtained from Scientific Expeditions at Zee. Provides 1 Supply. This is not the most viable option since you'll be spending a long time both converting or gaining them.

• Show us the money: Costs 4 actions and 1000 pence. Provides 4 Supplies. 1 S/A at 2.5 E/S, which is slower than the Rumours of treasure option but slightly less expensive if those s have to be purchased from the Bazaar (as that doubles the cost to 4 for 200WH, or 2.8 E/S).

• Ply your team with drink: Costs . Provides 1 supply. 1 S/A at 1.5 E/S

• Thieves and cracksmen: Costs . Provides 1 supply. 1 S/A at 1.6 E/S

• Hire 'local' knowledge: Costs . Provides 1 supply. 1 S/A at 1.6 0E/S

• Hire a porter from the docks: Requires 5 and , in return for 7 Supplies. The most economical way to gain Favours is via opportunity cards. See this page for a list of some notable sources of Favours.

  Note that this will slow down the process of gaining Renown. Also, once you unlock in , Dock Favours can be more profitably spent on Tribute.

• Burly guards and porters: Costs , provides 3 supplies.

• • These cost 3.5 at the , resulting in 1.5 S/A but costing 1.2 E/S. This is both faster and less expensive than using s.

• • Alternatively, if you have plenty of Rostygold, s, s and Identities Uncovered, you may create SBL in , resulting in a potential 2.0 S/A but costing 0.9 E/S in supplies, as well as a fee for entering the quarters (see table). N.B.2.0 S/A is the best-case - if you obtain fewer at a time, it is worse due to the entrance action [e.g.: one action to enter; 5x Recruit_Clay_Man_labour nets 10 x  SBL; convert into 30 supplies, for 16 actions (1 Entrance + 5 Recruits + 10 Conversions), or 1.9 S/A at roughly ~0.9 E/S depending on the entrance fee.] N.B. also each Recruit action is +3CP and -3CP .

• • You can also get 3 x  SBL from the Underclay for 5 actions with 147 (and/or ), which provides 9 supplies for 8 actions, or 1.1 S/A at zero cost in Echoes or other items. Without stats to 100% the tests, this will take an increased number of actions, however.

• • At Jericho Locks, if you put up a specific statue, you can Call in favours from the Church (Bishop of Southwark) on the Under_the_Statue_at_Jericho_Locks card for 5 x  SBL. Assuming one action to get the Church favour, you can get 15 supplies for 7 actions, or 2.1 S/A, at no cost. However, this requires 2 card draws, so the opportunity to use this method is not always available.

Summarised in the table below:

Burly guards and porters

Option	Cost	Stats for 100%	E/S (materials)	A/S	E/S (est. total) Assumes an opportunity cost of 2.5 EPA
Hire Strong-Backed Labour	PoSI	None	1.17 E/S	0.67 A/S	2.85 E/S
Recruit Clay Man labour (10x at a time)	x250 x250 x20 x5	None	.94 E/S ( ≤2) .93 E/S ( ≥3)	.53 A/S	2.26 E/S
Recruit Clay Man labour (in bulk)	Per 2 : x50 x50 x4 x1	None	.92 E/S	.50 A/S	2.17 E/S
Send an Unfinished Man to Spite	None	147 or 15	0 E/S	0.89 A/S	2.22 E/S

Expeditions

Once you've finished up your preparations, you can head out on an Expedition! Once you've chosen your Expedition, you can't go back to get more supplies, so be sure to come prepared. If you run out of Supplies, you'll have to abandon your Expedition, which is a terrible waste. Each of these areas provide different rewards and lore.

The Repeatable Expedition Areas are:

Expedition		Length	Cost	Rivals	Challenge	Reward 1	Reward 2
Seek a thieves' cache	1	10		N/A	Success /Alt	Unpredictable Treasure 1-80 +1 CP (6 to 66.5 (31 Avg))	Unpredictable Treasure 1-80 +1 CP (12 to 72.5 (37 Avg))
Seek a shrine of the Deep Blue Heaven	2	20	-	Standard Orthos	Success/ Rare	Unpredictable Treasure 1-160 +2 CP (2 to 125 (70.133 Avg))	+2 CP (66 )
The Chalcocite Pagoda	2	20	-	Standard Heroic	60	Pass: +1 CP (62.5 )	Fail: +1 CP (37.5 )
The Tomb of the Silken Thread	2	30	-	Standard Seamstress		Pass: +1 CP (147.5 )	Fail: +1 CP (85 )
The Sanctuary of the Crimson Petals	2	40	-	Standard Heroic	Success/ Rare	+1 CP (132.5 )	+1 CP (255 )
Stonefall Copse	1	20	-	Standard Orthos	-	+1 CP (62.5 )
A Temple of Uttermost Wind	2	30		Standard Virginia	Choice	Unpredictable Treasure 41-240 +1 CP (33.25 to 627.5 (162.331 Avg))	Unpredictable Treasure 41-240 +1 CP (43.25 to 637.5 (172.331 Avg))
A Gallery of Serpents	3	40	.	Standard Monsieur Pleat	-	Unpredictable Treasure 135?-240 +1 CP (75.20? to 662.5 (254.245? Avg))

The One-Time Expedition Areas are:

Expedition		Length	Cost	Rivals	Reward
The Tomb of the Seven	3	30	-	Standard Orthos Virginia
The Cave of the Nadir	5	60		Standard February	Opens route to

Your quality cannot be increased beyond level 5.

For training , A thieves' cache and Deep Blue Heaven are recommended. For profit, The tomb of the Silken Thread is recommended.

Archaeologist's and Rivals' Progress

To complete an Expedition, you'll need to increase your to the required amount which is equal to the minimum number of supplies needed to start the expedition. There is no point to acquiring more than necessary. It is also important to know that you can leave your to do other things. Although this seems a bit inconsistent with the concept of rivals it is very useful if you are missing an item needed to hinder your rivals (more on this later).

There are three options for progression that are always available. These are all broad challenges:

• A cautious approach (50) uses 1 Supply and 1 action to get 1 Progress.
• A bold approach (100) uses 2 Supplies and 1 action to get 2 Progress.
• A buccaneering approach (160) uses 3 Supplies and 1 action to get 3 Progress.

Failing the challenge will consume your Supplies at no Progress gain. Each option, success or failure, changes quality. This might unlock rare Airs-dependent cards. has a possibility of increasing with each action, with the amount of the increase dependent on which approach was taken and whether or not the result was a failure or a success.

Progress (per Action) = Supplies invested (1,2 or 3) x Chance of success (/ Actions spent; always 1) = S x C

Supplies per Progress = S / P = S / (S x C) = 1 / C (how many supplies you need to spend for each progress only depends on your Watchful stat)

Rivals' progress per own Progress = [Rivals' progress per 1 action] / [own Progress / 1 action] = [RP/A] / [P/A] =  RP / (S x C)

own Progress until 10 Rivals' progress = 9 Rivals' Progress / (Rivals' Progress / own Progress) = 9 / (R/P) = 9 / (RP / (S x C))

We can determine how much progress we can make before our rivals get ten on their own. Note that you start with  1 into the expedition and that these are numbers that are average results. You might get unlucky and gain rivals' progress on more than half of your actions. Nevertheless, you can approximate how a certain expedition will go rival-wise. You can also tell how many extra supplies you need to bring if you don't want to invest in 100 of them.

Approach	Watchful	Success Chance	Progress/ Action	Supplies/ Progress	Rivals' Progress/ Own Progress	Average Progress to 10 RP
Cautious	42	50%	0.5	2.00	0.75	12
	50	60%	0.6	1.67	0.58	15
	59	70%	0.7	1.43	0.46	19
	67	80%	0.8	1.25	0.38	24
	75	90%	0.9	1.11	0.31	29
	84	100%	1.0	1.00	0.25	36
Bold	84	50%	1.0	2.00	0.50	18
	101	60%	1.2	1.67	0.42	22
	118	70%	1.4	1.43	0.36	25
	134	80%	1.6	1.25	0.31	29
	152	90%	1.8	1.11	0.28	32
	167	100%	2.0	1.00	0.25	36
Buccaneering	135	50%	1.5	2.00	0.67	14
	162	60%	1.8	1.67	0.50	18
	189	70%	2.1	1.43	0.38	24
	215	80%	2.4	1.25	0.29	31
	242	90%	2.7	1.11	0.22	41
	267	100%	3.0	1.00	0.17	54

Other options unlock under certain conditions, mostly if are right. The only really interesting one is A sign? which gives you 4 progress without cost or risk of advancing your rivals.

• A supply cache! (20 FATE) (0-9 Expedition Supplies)
• A light caught by snow (11 Airs)
• The tent-city (22 Airs)
• White walls in the sun (33 Airs)
• An afternoon off (1 FATE) (85–90 Airs)
• A sign? (96+ Airs and 1+ Expedition Supplies)
• A cautious day (95+ Airs and An Expedition: Seeking the Cave of the Nadir)

If you run out of supplies you will have to Resupply ending your current attempt and resetting your progress.

The same happens if your  reaches 10 and you have to Concede. This however might be averted.

Hindering your Rivals

Either through the length of your expedition or sheer bad luck, your will grow. There are two ways to avoid conceding, though. Both require you to pass a skill challenge. One is the Airs-dependent storylet options that show up every now and then if your rivals' progress is between 3–9. They will reduce your rivals' progress by 2 at the cost of 1 unit of supplies and various items. Note that these are specific to certain characters which needs to be mentioned when you start the expedition.

• A chance to hinder Dr Orthos (90–100 Airs, 80): costs .
• A chance to hinder Virginia (80–90 Airs, 50): costs and .
• A chance to hinder your rival, February (50–60 Airs, 120): costs , , and .
• A chance to hinder the Heroic Archaeologist (80–90 Airs, 50): costs s and .
• A chance to hinder the Lugubrious Seamstress (80–90 Airs, 50): costs and .

Should your reach 10, you can spend 10 supplies to Confront a Rival. Confronting a named rival will cost 4 actions and end their involvement in the expedition, so you can only do this once per character. Successful countering also drops rivals' progress back to 1, though it doesn't prevent a rival threat to grow up again. If there are no named rivals left, the generic Other Rivals option appears and can be played until you lack the resources to do so.

• Assault Orthos' camp ( 80): +5 AP, costs 200 x  Bottles of Greyfields 1879.
• Bribe Virginia ( 50): +3 AP, costs s.
• Challenge February to a competition ( 120): +3 AP, costs .
• Rescue the Heroic Archaeologist ( 60): +3 AP, requires no additional expenses.
• Distract the Lugubrious Seamstress ( 72): +3–5 AP, costs 10 x  Bottles of Strangling Willow Absinthe.
• Other Rivals ( 50 + Supplies 10): costs s.

Late Mid-Game, Minimised Number of Actions Guide

The following is a guide for players who have been playing this game for a long, long time, and wish to keep their action point use to a minimum while finding treasure.

Restrictions: To minimise the number of actions that you will need to finish the expedition, follow these restrictions:

1. No s: Using these means that you will have to factor in the actions which were spent to obtain the Second Chances. This not only extends the number of actions, but also complicates the estimations.
2. Always use A buccaneering approach: This is obviously the fastest of the three non-luck-dependent ways of accumulating progress. Also, the hindrance will only rarely be an issue, as you will outpace your rivals using this method.
3. Obtain supplies through spending gained through opportunity cards: As mentioned earlier in this page, this method of gaining supplies is the most economical and efficient in the long-run. This will be needed in order to squeeze the most profit out of any outcome for the expedition.

   Alternatively, Strong-Backed Labour from the Underclay can be used.

   • Note that after you unlock , Dock Favours can be more profitably spent on Tribute instead of expeditions.

requirements: In order to achieve 100% success on A buccaneering approach, you will need to reach 267 Watchful. After all, no Sudden Insights are to be used, and any setback due to failure can dash away a lot of potential profit. Increasing your base Watchful above 200 is recommended, but it's possible without that if you can put an extremely Watchful outfit together.

Number of Actions Points Needed: The number of action points you need is determined using the following stages of the expedition. Note that conservative assumptions are used, with the main one being no occurrence of good luck. You need 30 points of Archaeologist's Progress to end the expedition successfully, and you start with 1.

• Obtaining to be converted into supplies: The expedition nominally needs 30 supplies.
• Starting the expedition: 1 action
• Accumulating progress: You will need to use A buccaneering approach several times, possibly followed by one of the other choices. Gaining 29 progress requires 10 actions. Rivals' Progress is not expected to be an issue, if you can pass every Watchful check for accumulating progress.
• Completing the expedition: 1 Action point to end the expedition successfully.

Modifiers due to good luck: Currently, the only known moment when good luck can occur is during Archaeologist's Progress accumulation.

• Good luck: If you have good luck, you can score A sign?. This option grants 4 points of Archaeologist's Progress, meaning that 4 crates of supplies are saved. This in turn means that you save Action points which are needed to get the Docks' Favour for these supplies. (You may also save 1 Action point, if the new value is divisible by 3.)
• It's optimal to take the non-buccaneering action before the very final action of the expedition, so that potential Signs found will have a bigger effect. You need to draw A Sign twice in order for it to save an action on this expedition.

End-game version

This version assumes sourced with Bishop of Southwark, and buccaneering at 100% success.

Counting each SBL as costing 2.5 Echoes instead of actions, supplies are gained at 3 S/A and 0.83 E/S.

Supply Costs:

• 29 supplies * 3 S/A = 9.67 actions
• 29 supplies * 0.83 E/S = 24.07 Echoes

Expedition Actions:

• 1 action to start + 1 action to finish + 1 to convert reward on the Rat Market + 10 actions in the Expedition = 13 actions

Reward for Tomb of the Silken Thread Expedition:

• 147.5 Echoes

Net Earnings:

• (147.5 E - 22.67 E) / (13 A + 9.67 A) = 123.43 E / 22.67 A = 5.44 EPA

This doesn't take into account occasionally getting A sign?, which would save supplies and thus increase profit.