Use the Goat's... unique talents
Spoiler warning! This page contains details about Fallen London Actions. |
From: All fear the Overgoat!
Action Cost: 8
Game Instructions: This will take eight actions, but the reward will be commensurate.
Challenge information
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- 205 - very chancy (41%)
- 255 - chancy (51%)
- 305 - modest (61%)
- 355 - very modest (71%)
- 405 - low-risk (81%)
- 455 - straightforward (91%)
- 500 - straightforward (100%)
Success
The Goat returns
- Watchful is increasing…
- You've gained 1 x Storm-Threnody
- You've gained 1 x Bazaar Permit
Failure
The Overgoat is displeased
- Watchful is increasing…
- You've gained 1 x Aeolian Scream
Revenue Analysis
The following assumes that the player is using a to bolster chances of success, as this will always be more efficient than not using one given the difficulty of the challenge.
End-game players may be expected to have a Watchful of 267 to 345, depending on their Destiny, Profession, Ambition, Übergoat ownership, and whether they have overcapped their Watchful. Including the Second Chance re-roll, this means the chances of success range from 77.9% (for a raw 53% chance to succeed) to 90.4% (for a 69% chance). The expected profits from success accordingly range between 19.48 and 22.6 E. On failure, players receive 2.5E, and the expected profit from failure ranges between .55 E and .24 E. Thus, the overall profit for this action is 20.03 to 22.84 E. If the player holds onto their Storm-Threnodies to sell them at the Rat Market (available three weeks out of every twelve), overall profit increases to 25.87 E to 29.62 E, at the cost of an additional action.
To calculate EPA, the action to obtain the Second Chance must also be considered, and not simply the 8 action cost of this option. The most efficient methods of obtaining second chances are Give a Gift! and the Church/Great Game conflict card, both of which give 1 of each Advantage. If players have access to the Cave of the Nadir, they may use the leftover Advantages to a profitable end; if they do not (for example because they have overcapped stats and wish to preserve them), the other Advantages are not useful. Thus, the cost of a Sudden Insight may be either 1/4 of an action or 1 full action.
Accordingly, players with access to the Nadir and Rat Market have an overall EPA expectation of 2.79 to 3.20; players who do not, who must count obtaining the Insight as a full separate action and sell the Storm-Threnody for its normal price, have an overall EPA of 2.23 to 2.54. In either case, this is lower EPA than Learn of the Overgoat, on the same card.