Editing Use the Goat's... unique talents
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The following assumes that the player is using a {{IL|Sudden Insight}} to bolster chances of success, as this will always be more efficient than not using one given the difficulty of the challenge. | The following assumes that the player is using a {{IL|Sudden Insight}} to bolster chances of success, as this will always be more efficient than not using one given the difficulty of the challenge. | ||
| − | End-game players may be expected to have a [[Watchful]] of 267 to | + | End-game players may be expected to have a [[Watchful]] of 267 to 305, depending on their [[Destiny]], [[Professions (Guide)|Profession]], [[Übergoat]] ownership, and whether they have [["Will you execute our denouement?"|overcapped their Watchful]]. Including the Second Chance re-roll, this means the chances of success range from 77.9% (for a raw 53% chance to succeed) to 84.8% (for a 61% chance). The expected profits from success accordingly range between 19.44 and 21.2 E. On failure, players receive 2.5E, and the expected profit from failure ranges between .55 E and .38 E. Thus, the overall profit for this action is '''20 to 21.6''' '''E'''. |
To calculate EPA, the action to obtain the Second Chance must also be considered, and not simply the 8 action cost of this option. The most efficient methods of obtaining second chances are [[Give a Gift! A commotion in the Square of Lofty Words|Give a Gift!]] and the [[Everyone deserves a second chance|Church/Great Game conflict card]], both of which give 1 of each Advantage. If players have access to the Cave of the Nadir, they may [[The end of battles|use the leftover Advantages]] to a profitable end; if they do not (for example because they have overcapped stats and wish to preserve them), the other Advantages are not useful. Thus, the cost of a Sudden Insight may be either 1/4 of an action or 1 full action. | To calculate EPA, the action to obtain the Second Chance must also be considered, and not simply the 8 action cost of this option. The most efficient methods of obtaining second chances are [[Give a Gift! A commotion in the Square of Lofty Words|Give a Gift!]] and the [[Everyone deserves a second chance|Church/Great Game conflict card]], both of which give 1 of each Advantage. If players have access to the Cave of the Nadir, they may [[The end of battles|use the leftover Advantages]] to a profitable end; if they do not (for example because they have overcapped stats and wish to preserve them), the other Advantages are not useful. Thus, the cost of a Sudden Insight may be either 1/4 of an action or 1 full action. | ||
| − | Accordingly, players with access to the Nadir | + | Accordingly, players with access to the Nadir have an overall EPA expectation of '''2.42 to 2.62'''; players who do not, who must count obtaining the Insight as a full separate action, have an overall EPA of '''2.2 to 2.4.''' |
</div> | </div> | ||
